Now that the season is over, it’s time to take another look at how badly (or well) teams did this season in comparison to their initial ranking on my first S&*% List. Last time I used cap numbers from HoopsHype, but some of the numbers were awkward and dramatically different from those I found at Basketball-Reference, and I’m more inclined to use numbers that look legit and have been updated within the past two months.

Note: I put the teams who spend the most per win at the top of the list because, well, you know the title. It wouldn’t make sense to put the Grizzlies on top of a list that’s supposed to indicate the teams that are worst at managing money and building a roster. So, without further ado, here are your biggest $pender$ from 2012-13.

The easy trend to notice is that the more games you win, the lower on the list you are. The Lakers are of course the only exception, but the team suffered injury after injury to stars this year. Kobe Bryant’s salary alone is worth more than half of Phoenix’s entire cap number. The second most obvious conclusion to draw is that if your cap number reaches astronomic levels, winning will of course cost a ton of money. Seven teams spent more than $70 million this season, but only four of them finished in the “good” half of the chart. The Nets, Celtics and Lakers all found themselves on the north side of the completely subjective official divider between cap-smart and cap-not-so-smart.

It’s very difficult to field a winning team in the NBA while also staying below the cap, which is what makes what Houston is doing so unbelievable. Sure, the Rockets will be lucky to beat OKC once during the first round, but Houston is also in a comfortable position moving forward.

The challenging thing about measuring cap dollars per win for NBA teams is that teams’ salary cap numbers are often very similar, something you don’t always see in the MLB, where dollars per win is sometimes a shocking stat to look at. Twenty-three NBA teams have cap numbers between $53-70 million, and the only real outlier for humongous cap numbers belongs to the Lakers, whose $100+ million payroll definitely served them well this year.

Note: When a payroll is above $100 million, the cheapest dollars per win mark is $1.25 million/win, and that’s if a team goes 82-0. When stacked against this year’s NBA teams, the undefeated Lakers would still have finished outside the top five. Let’s pretend LA would have won 62 games this season, a perfectly acceptable total for a team with a $100 million payroll, unless you’re the Knicks. In that scenario, the $100 million team would still have finished 14th this season. Winning is expensive, but at some point it becomes inefficient to keep an enormous payroll… unless, of course, you’re the Lakers.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Georgia Shooting Guard

Caldwell-Pope has benefited from players like Glenn Robinson III and Marcus Smart returning to school, explaining his rising draft stock. The guard has played heavy minutes at Georgia for two seasons, and he’s definitely produced, but his inconsistency leaves much to be desired. KCP’s TS% was ninth-best in the SEC in 2012-13 (he was named SEC Player of the Year) but he shot below 40% from the field in six of his last eight games at Georgia. In those eight games, he attempted 65 3-pointers. He’s not trigger-shy.

And that can be a bad thing. He was 16th in the SEC in 3-point percentage despite taking 7 per game throughout the season. Seven per game!!! The only player who took more in the conference was Ole Miss’ Marshall Henderson, and he’s literally crazy. The Mavericks have been there and done that with conference players of the year who can’t shoot outside (Dominique Jones was the Big East Player of the Year once upon a time), but KCP has more size and athleticism than Jones ever did. No one on Dallas’ roster can do this, either:

KCP can soar. I don’t love watching dunkers , because normally guys who can jump out of the gym aren’t going to eat glass, too, especially if they’re guards. Caldwell-Pope is the exception. He grabbed 180 defensive rebounds last year, averaging 7.1 total boards per game. He grabbed almost 20 percent of the available defensive rebounds last season, and of the Bulldogs who played at least 11 minutes per game, no one else’s DRB% was higher than 14. KCP was Georgia’s only effective rebounder last season. (He was also Georgia’s only player with an offensive rating higher than 99. He was on a bad team, but considering he was the only player worth paying attention to, KCP did well enough.)

The Mavericks have many needs, and finding a wing man isn’t exactly one. If Dallas re-signs OJ Mayo, there’s no need to draft KCP, as Rick Carlisle still rightly prefers to use Vince Carter as a shooting guard off the bench more often than as a small forward. And with Jared Cunningham still working his way up through the D-League ranks and Jae Crowder pledging to lose weight in the off-season to better defend smaller players, the Mavericks might be better off looking elsewhere in the draft. (Point guard is still the largest need, as Dallas does not currently employ one.) But if Mayo leaves via free agency and Dallas deals either Carter or Shawn Marion, which is not entirely unlikely, the need for a 2-guard is suddenly there.

Unless one of the scenarios listed above plays out, drafting Caldwell-Pope would be the least need-based pick Dallas could make. Still, he has all the tools, both athletically and in terms of skills, to contribute at the pro level. He’s a valuable defender, he can rebound and he can definitely shoot (and score), so there’s plenty there to like. Dallas has needed an athletic winger for as long as I’ve watched the team, and KCP displayed too much talent in college to completely fall flat in the pros. Worst-case scenario he’s a bench guy who can come in and make some exciting, athletic plays that can pump up the crowd and swing momentum. You’d think of him as a less polished post-Nets Vince Carter with a higher leaping ability but with a lower overall basketball IQ right out of school. Nothing wrong with that.

Kelly Olynyk – Gonzaga Center

Gonzaga center Kelly Olynyk is a weird-looking dude, but he might actually make sense for Dallas. Courtesy of SD Dirk’s Flickr.

He’s got the hair. He’s got the post moves. He’s got the defense. He’s got the name. He’s got legs that appear to be clean-shaven. Seriously, Kelly Olynyk has all the offensive tools to be a decent center in the league. He can pull of Chris Kaman’s look while playing defense slightly more often. In fact, Olynyk is practically a Kaman clone, both by appearance and playing style. He looks crazy, but plays under control. The first-team All-American led the nation in PER this year, though the second-place finisher was named Mike Muscala and some dude named Fred finished fourth, so you’ve got to take that with a small grain of salt. He finished in the top 15 nationally both in offensive and total win shares. Although his hair might fool you, Olynyk can play.

The Mavericks desperately need a point guard and a center. If Michael Carter-Williams (the most realistic option at this point) is off the board by the time Dallas picks at No. 13, Dallas would have to give drafting Olynyk some thought. Everything about him is efficient. His 67.5 TS% was fourth in the nation. Even his hair moves in concert. Kaman isn’t coming back, and it’s unlikely that Dwight Howard will leave the Lakers after this season, which leaves the Mavericks with the option of signing Brandan Wright and the need to sign someone else. And assuming the three center prospects considered to be this year’s best (Nerlens Noel, Alex Len and Cody Zeller) are off the board by the time the Mavericks are on the clock, as most draft experts have predicted, Dallas won’t have many options.

Gauging his draft value is hard to do, as Olynyk played in a “mid-major” conference (although the WCC is consistently among the country’s deepest and best mid-majors). Mock drafts have him going as high as 13, but in most mocks he falls somewhere between 15-20 (as I’ve said before, it’s in that “This Guy Might Be Good With Proper Coaching” range). Olynyk improved every year in college in almost every area, and enjoyed an especially huge leap in production this season. He turned it over less and assisted on a higher percentage of his team’s field goals, indicating he’s grown comfortable in the paint and passing out of potential double teams. And considering there’s likely no more than maybe one pro prospect on Gonzaga’s roster right now, he saw his fair share of defensive attention this year. Here’s a highlight tape. (Note: I didn’t title it “repetoire.”)

Olynyk’s footwork is at times sloppy, and by no means is he a physical specimen, but he shows touch around the basket and though he rarely takes jumpers, he shoots with good form. I also like how he looks to the rim as soon as he catches the ball. There’s little to no hesitation, even when he catches it 10-15 feet from the basket. Though he’s not ready to play 25 minutes every night, Olynyk can still come off the bench and provide some scoring pop right away, and at a much more affordable price than comparable centers like Kaman.

Of course, Kaman was part of the problem this year, not part of the solution, so Olynyk isn’t necessarily the greatest option. But that’s the type of players that are available in the area in which Dallas is drafting. If Zeller and MCW are both off the board, Olynyk might be the guy. Dallas could even pass up drafting MCW and trade down a few picks and grab Olynyk at a cheaper price, maybe even landing another role player in the process. Dallas has a ton of roster spots to fill and the cap room to absorb a contract, so trading down 4-5 spots might not be a bad idea. The Mavericks could use the size and skill, and now that Dirk is clean-shaven, Dallas could use the hair.

The 13th spot in the draft is pretty undesirable to everybody. It’s usually where the “This Guy Might Be Good With Proper Coaching” players go, well after the “This Guy Is Good” and “He Has Potential” players are scooped up within the first 10 picks. By the time the Mavericks make their first selection (assuming they don’t trade down, of course) Nerlens Noel, Trey Burke and Ben McLemore will be long gone, and the chances of seeing Shabazz Muhammad or Alex Len drop into the teens are slim.

This is Part 1 of a five-part draft preview in which I’ll pretend I know what Dallas will do, although their draft behavior in the past has been difficult to predict. (The last player Dallas itself drafted who eventually appeared in a Mavs jersey was Nick Fazekas, who was selected in 2007. Of course, Dallas indirectly drafted Jae Crowder, Jared Cunningham and Bernard James this year, but that was through a trade with Cleveland.) Anyway, here we go.

Michael Carter-Williams – Syracuse Point Guard

Here’s a player comparison. Who’s who?

Player 1: 8.1 points, 46.7 FG%, 35.4 3FG%, 69.6 FT%, 2.8 TO, 3.5 AST/TO, 55.8 TS%, 52.9 eFG%, 2.6 Off. Win Shares
Player 2: 11.9 points, 39.3 FG%, 29.4 3FG%, 69.4 FT%, 3.5 TO, 2.1 AST/TO, 49.1 TS%, 43.8 eFG%, 2.7 Off. Win Shares

Player 2 is MCW, while Player 1 is Kendall Marshall from 2011-12, who couldn’t get on the floor in Phoenix this season. I was a huge fan of Marshall coming out of North Carolina last year, but at this point his game isn’t complete enough to make an impact in the NBA. Carter-Williams played in the Big East, which was likely the best conference in college basketball this past season, but it’s no excuse for being a sub-40% shooter. His 3-point numbers are especially troubling; what makes you think he’ll suddenly find his range when he moves back a few feet extra at the pro level? That’s especially a problem for Dallas, as the Mavericks desperately need a guard who can consistently shoot the 3. Darren Collison, Mike James, OJ Mayo etc. all struggled mightily down the stretch from beyond the arc, which really became a huge problem toward the end of the season. If Dallas’ guards can’t shoot, opponents’ guards can afford either to sag off their man and either annoy Dirk at the free throw line (causing him to force a shot or a pass to a guard who can’t shoot) or play far off enough to get a hand in the passing lane in case Dirk decides not to shoot (resulting in a deflection or, in some cases, a turnover leading to a run-out). It causes problems. That said, the other big problem with Dallas guards was the general inability to get Dirk the ball where he wants it, and Carter-Williams is smart and skilled enough to get him the ball both in the post and at either elbow, where Dirk is deadliest.

The one thing MCW did better this year than Marshall the year before (and better than just about anyone else in the country) was defend. Carter-Williams was worth 3.6 win shares on defense this season, second-best in the nation, led the NCAA in total steals and was 7th in the Big East this season with an 87.4 defensive rating. He’s athletic enough to stay in front of quick guards, and judging by his assist numbers and his general command of an offense, he’s a very cerebral player. And despite his low shooting numbers, he always dribbles with his head up and always knows exactly where his teammates are. And he’s 6′ 6″. Six-foot six!!!!! Sometimes he searches too hard for the pass, though, and he tends to force them at times (he led the NCAA in both assists and turnovers this year). He can run an offense, but he can ruin an offense. He plays defense, but costs his team possessions. He’s an enigma. That’s how you end up in the “This Guy Might Be Good With Proper Coaching” part of the draft. If he can develop a jump shot, he’s a reliable point guard for a decade. But if he can’t, then…

MCW’s upside is still high. Worst-case scenario is he develops into an Aging-Jason Kidd type of guy with more athleticism (not unlike Rajon Rondo, though MCW doesn’t seem to enjoy dribbling as much as Rondo), as a player who can stay in front of his man, at times guard other positions, make some smart plays every now and then but who can also at times make offense seem like a 4-on-5 challenge. He’s not going to start immediately, and if he can’t develop a jumper soon there’s no guarantee he’d even crack the Mavs’ rotation. Rick Carlisle doesn’t like playing rookies as it is, let alone those who can’t contribute with scoring. There are plenty of point guards on the free agent market this summer, though, so Dallas could potentially draft MCW and let him play in the D League. (Oh wait, Jared Cunningham is already doing that.)

That isn’t to say MCW isn’t pro-ready. If Dallas really needs a backup point guard, he’s their man. But after Collison’s performance this season, the Mavs might be able to snag him for a bargain, meaning they might not need MCW come draft night. Collison is much more complete now, and if the Mavs are truly interested in competing this upcoming season, they don’t necessarily have the time to wait patiently for a prospect to develop.

Instead of writing a complex think piece full of wonderful stats and very small numbers, I’ll just do what the Mavs did this year: talk about turnovers.

Dallas will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2001, and unless the Mavs can win two out of their last four games, which seems unlikely after their terrible performance last night against Phoenix, Dallas will lose more games this season than in any since 1997-98. Ouch.

It’s been a story of underwhelming performances, bad crunch-time play and bad attempts at playing defense. Fundamentally speaking, this year’s Dallas team was the worst I’ve seen since the pre-Dirk Mavs rolled out starting lineups featuring Robert Pack and Erick Strickland, when beating the Bulls in 1998 (coincidentally the last time Dallas lost this many games and also the team’s last season without Dirk) was considered the franchise’s greatest accomplishment in nearly a decade. I was at that game, and I remember Cedric Ceballos’ fadeaway miracle. I didn’t understand why everyone was so excited, but the Mavericks were that terrible. It was a milestone, for sure.

(Seriously, it was. They made a video about it. And when I was a kid, I watched this over and over again. That game really was my Super Bowl growing up. I also didn’t know the difference between the Super Bowl and the NBA Finals. I was seven.)

Okay, so that year’s team won only 20 games. This year’s team wasn’t quite as bad. But it came close. (Really, watch the video. Don Nelson uses an Australian accent midway through. It’s priceless.)

Most importantly, the story of this year’s team is one of turnovers.

Dallas committed 20+ turnovers in nine games this season. (NINE!) For reference, from 2007-2012 the team turned it over 20+ times in just 12 games. The Mavs have committed the terrible feat 37 times since 2002, and one in four of those occurrences came this season. To be fair, six of the games came when Dirk was hurt, and the seventh came in his season debut against San Antonio in the worst loss of the season. Not surprisingly, the other two times came in probably the most devastating losses of the season: One was the night Dallas blew a 20-plus-point lead in 10 minutes against Memphis in a 90-84 loss in which Dirk said stuff like this: “They got going and were all over us. That really sums it up. They put the pressure on us, and that was the game.” You don’t say.

The other came one night before, when Dallas lost at home to a terrible Milwaukee team. In one game, Dallas wasted a 20-20 Dirk game. In the other, no one even showed up. The Mavs just handed the ball to the other team and said “do your best.” Story of the season.

The 20+ turnover games weren’t the only ones when turnovers were a problem. This loss was equally devastating. Dallas might not have turned it over 20 times throughout the game, but doing it four times in less than two minutes is an accomplishment in itself.

We shouldn’t be surprised, though. Dirk’s injury aside, recovering from a 13-23 record in a loaded West is almost impossible. The Mavs came up just a bit short, but they have no one to blame but themselves. Dallas won a title by owning the last two minutes of the game and controlling the flow throughout. Those elements were missing this season, and the team’s record reflects that. What’s more, the best players on the roster set a goal to reach .500 and have fallen short three times in a row in games when they can finally get there. (Maybe setting goals to achieve mediocrity brings out mediocre performances. But what do I know?) It’s been a disappointing season all around.

Next up is the draft. In the coming days I’ll take a look at some of the prospects Dallas is apparently looking at, starting with Syracuse’s Michael Carter-Williams. Who should the Mavs draft, and why? Do the prospects’ strengths align with the team’s several blatant weaknesses? Would Dallas be better off trading picks for players? We will see.

Hopefully you won’t be disappointed.

Energy continuously flows from being concentrated, to becoming dispersed, spread out, wasted and useless.
New energy cannot be created and high grade energy is being destroyed. An economy based on endless growth is…
Un-sus-tain-able!

Muse’s The 2nd Law is a politically charged album that has absolutely nothing to do with basketball or any other sport. But boy, does it apply to what’s going on right now in the NBA.

We are currently seeing the best of Carmelo Anthony. The Knicks forward has put together a recent run for the ages. LeBron’s rampage through the league was impressive. It still is. LeBron is the best player I’ve ever seen (and remembered) in my lifetime, and it’s not even close. Carmelo has terrorized just about everybody in his last four games, though, and he’s done something LeBron has never been able to do: He’s scoring at will from outside the paint.

But there’s a problem.

As terrific as Melo has played during the past week or so — and I do mean terrific – he’s peaking too soon. Carmelo is playing like Dirk did in the 2011 West Finals, only his peak is coming during the regular season. He’s going to cool down, and it’s going to be very, very soon. Don’t let his results fool you.

Carmelo’s game right now is based on an economy that’s enjoying endless growth. As the blokes in Muse yell, that’s un-sus-tain-able!

Not only is Carmelo shooting from ridiculous spots on the floor, but he’s also going to face double teams consistently throughout the rest of the season. His production is impossible to keep up. Courtesy of Keith Allison’s Flickr.

First, let’s take a look at how unreal Carmelo has been in his past four games. He’s averaging 41.8 points per game on 60.9% shooting. His true shooting is nearly 70%. His scoring average has increased to 28.4 points per game and his TS% has risen by 1 full point since March 27, even though he’s attempting a ridiculous 27.5 shots per game, 5.5 higher than his season average. But double teams and poor shot selection haven’t damned Melo yet; his game scores in the four most recent contests are all among his eight highest scores this season.

In short, he’s been unstoppable. But it won’t last.

He’s been doing all of his damage outside of the paint, though. For example, to the right is his shot chart from his 50-point game against benchwarmers the Heat one week ago. He shot 18-of-26 on the night, and not even a single attempt, let alone a basket, came from within the paint. His shooting numbers in general have been spectacular in the past four games, but when compared to his season averages from the same spots, red flags go up all around the world. Here are more lyrics from “Unsustainable” that do a good job of illustrating how we should feel about it.

Ooh ooh
Ooh Uuuh
Uuuh Ouhh

Melo’s numbers of note in the past four games, as compared to his numbers before the tear:

From 16-24 feet: 64.9% (40.9% before)
From 24+ feet: 58.3% (37.1% before)
From mid-range: 63% on 54 attempts (half his shots in the past four games have come from this range…) (42.5% before)
76% of his mid-range field goals came unassisted, as compared to 69.3% before
Jump shots: 62.7% (35% before)

Carmelo is living outside the paint, which he’s typically done throughout his career, and he’s finding success. Coming from a Mavs fan, it’s safe to say he can’t keep the streak going. For nearly a decade Dallas built its own success on taking jump shots. It looks great as long as they’re falling, but what happens when Melo finally goes cold? The Knicks have relied on him all season, sure, but even more so during the past few games. LeBron’s more-than-human tear a couple months ago is something he can keep up, because he’s always been able to get to the rim at will. Carmelo isn’t so lucky.

We all know he’ll keep shooting, and we all know he’s not going to keep scoring 40 points per game, but he’s not going to come anywhere close to shooting 60% outside the paint, as he’s been doing for the past week.

It’s unsustainable.

Dirk is still the man.

The Mavs and Lakers play tonight in what’s basically a must-win for Dallas. The Mavs are two games behind the Jazz for the 8th seed in the West, and Utah has the tiebreaker (Dallas has two games in hand on Utah and one on L.A.). If Dallas loses tonight, its chances are grim.

If the Mavs lose any night, their chances are grim. But with Dirk, there’s always hope.

It’s time to put an end to this ridiculous description of Dirk’s recent run as “vintage.” He’s been unhealthy all season until now. It was easy to see he wasn’t ready to come back when he did. Every split known to mankind can prove it. His shooting percentage and scoring average has risen significantly each month this season. He’s shooting 94% on free throws since the All-Star break. His numbers since mid-February? 20 points, 8 rebounds, 53/48/94 and his true shooting rate is just below 65%. He’s shooting 62% in the last five minutes of games when the score is within 5 points either way. He’s playing as well as he ever has, and he’s doing it on a team full of players he’s mostly never played with. He missed a month or two, and it took him all of January to recover. (He is 34, after all.) But since the All-Star break, the guy has been money. And in the past 8 games, he’s been ridiculously good.

Dirk didn’t go anywhere.

The good news for Dallas is Dirk has been playing on another planet during the past 8 games, but the bad news is he hadn’t been getting the ball enough to make a difference in Dallas’ losses in March to make an impact in close games. The Mavs are 5-3 in their last 8, and in two of those losses Dirk was 8-of-10 from the field. He’s shot only 117 times in 8 games (less than 15 attempts per game and two shots below his career average). If Dallas wants to win, give the ball to Dirk. Especially when he’s playing like this. It’s that simple.

Just how godly has he been since the Mavs beat Cleveland on March 15?

Here’s what he did to the Bulls:

He was 14-of-17 with 35 points with a 97.9 TS%. Check out his shot chart from that game. He was scoring from all over the court. The Bulls couldn’t stop him, especially in the 4th quarter. (The corner 3 he made near the end of the game was his second conversion from the right corner all season. He’s only attempted five corner 3s all year, yet somehow he’s shooting 43.3% on 3s this season. This guy defies every rule known to us.)

Here’s what he did to the Clippers:

He got wherever he wanted on the floor on his way to 33 points and a huge Mavs win. He scored at the rim, at the 3-point line and, most famously, his one-legged fadeaway is back. In the last 8 games, Dirk is 13-of-19 on stepback jump shots and 6-of-9 on normal fadeaways. (NBA.com doesn’t quite know how to characterize Dirk’s main weapon; the site has “fadeaway,” “stepback jump shots,” “turnaround fadeaway shot” and “turnaround jump shot.” I don’t think anyone knows how to describe it, but his numbers are good in all of them.) Everything is working for him.

Just after the All-Star break, I wrote a piece in which I argued Dirk seems to be reinventing himself. He’d been spending most possessions hovering around either elbow or hanging out at the top of the arc. While he’s still doing that, recently he’s become more willing to put the ball on the floor, allowing him to back down defenders and go either to his unstoppable one-legged wonder or turn and drive to the basket for an easy layup. Throughout his career Dirk’s always shown the ability to make adjustments to his game to meet his physical limitations. Now that his knees are working for him again, he’s able to do whatever he wants, whenever he wants. And the Mavs desperately needed his resurgence.

He isn’t doing anything “vintage.” Dirk is still Dirk.

A healthy and effective Dirk is easily the biggest reason for the Mavs’ resurgence and 9-3 record during the past 12 games, but Mike James’ emergence as a reliable perimeter option has also played a huge role. James, who took over the starting job from Darren Collison 12 games ago (not a coincidence), hasn’t shot lights out this season or even specifically during this 12-game run, but he’s shooting very well from certain areas on the floor that align with where Dirk likes his shooters to go. Ironically, James’ most effective areas are as odd as the ones Dirk dominates. The two players who make up what’s probably the most unlikely tandem in the league have actually brought out the best in each other.

Take a look at James’ shot chart this season. He’s most effective shooting 3s from the wing and struggles greatly in the corner (green is good, red is bad), where players are typically most efficient. James also hasn’t seen success shooting at the rim, scoring only 37% of the time from within 5 feet. But Dirk tends to thrive when playing with a point guard who seemingly opts not to drive to the basket. Here’s Jason Kidd’s shot chart from the 2010-11 season. Kidd, like James, struggled from the corner and, really, from everywhere else on the floor except for wing 3s and those from straight away. Both James and Kidd have found unexpected success shooting from the most challenging areas on the floor. The other thing they share in common is general command of an offense.

James has done a better job the past few games of getting Dirk the ball in the post, something Collison has struggled with throughout the season. As Dirk makes his move, James’ man (or OJ Mayo, depending on who delivers the entry pass) will sink toward the post to help Dirk’s defender. Once that happen, Dirk will pass out to the perimeter to either James (who will shoot the 3) or to Mayo (who will throw across the court to James as the defense rotates). Dirk and Mayo have assisted James 10 times during the past 12 games, and James is shooting 47% on 3s during that time. More than half of his completed field goal attempts have come off assists, and similarly more than 80% of his successful 3-point attempts have come off assists, and James has shot 60% from 25 feet and beyond during the past 12 games when Dirk is on the floor. He’s shooting just 37% overall when Dirk is off the floor. This type of stuff isn’t coincidental.

But James hasn’t just thrived from beyond the arc. With Dirk on the court during this 12-game stretch, James is shooting 8-of-15 from 5-9 feet away from the basket and is 13-of-25 from within the paint. While Dirk sits on the bench, James is shooting only 3-of-8 inside the paint. Obviously James shoots much more when Dirk is on the floor because Dirk is on the floor a majority of the game, but the reason the increase in shot selection and productivity comes because James and Dirk play off each other. Now that the German is back to his old form, bigs are hesitant to rotate off Dirk when he and James work the pick-and-roll game, leaving James with extra space to operate and therefore he’s likelier to get to the basket undeterred. (Brandan Wright’s insertion to the starting lineup helps from here as well, as he’s deadly around the basket and his man is just as unlikely to leave him to help against James.)

Dirk, symbiotically, has benefited from James’ increase in playing time, at least from beyond the arc. He’s 13-0f-24 shooting 3s with James, but only 3-of-12 without. Almost shockingly, Dirk is shooting 9-of-11 from 10-14 feet without James, but only 15-of-26 with him. However, most of the shots Dirk takes from 10-19 feet when playing with a point guard with command of an offense come in isolation situations, which naturally lessens the likelihood of unbelievable efficiency often found in catch-and-shoot situations. James has assisted Dirk a team-high 23 times in the past 12 games (Dirk’s made only 93 shots, a troubling statistic in its own right) but it’s a safe bet that most of the assists come in transition, when Dirk is one of the deadliest players in the league from 3. And here are Dirk’s shooting numbers with James on the floor: 54.4/54.2/100 and 64.5 TS%. With him off the floor? The numbers slip to 52.7/25/88.2 with a 60.8 TS%. The difference might not be hugely significant, but when a team is grappling for playoff position every percentage point is ever so valuable.

Twelve games is an admittedly small sample size, but certain shooting numbers are so skewed that it’s difficult to argue against. James’ weird playing style and shot selection might not work in most NBA offenses (why else has he played for so many teams?) but his game seems to blend together very well with Dirk’s, which is a sight for sore eyes for the Mavericks.

Who would’ve guessed an injury to Metta World Peace could be the nail in the coffin for the Lakers’ playoff hopes? Courtesy of bridgetds’ Flickr.

Metta World Peace has torn his meniscus and will miss the rest of the season, according to several reports. The Lakers’ small forward has started 64 of the 70 games in which he’s played this season, and although Kobe is generally considered an elite defender, World Peace is the club’s primary perimeter stopper.

Without World Peace, the Lakers’ hopes look fairly grim. Even if L.A. can hold off the Mavericks and Jazz during the last 11 games of the season, it’s somewhere between challenging and impossible to envision Kobe, Jodie Meeks and Antawn Jamison defending Westbrook, Durant, Tony Parker or any other superior perimeter player once the playoffs come around. And that’s a big if.

It’s important to consider that World Peace is having his most efficient offensive season since joining the team in 2009. His true shooting percentage is higher this season (52%) than any year since his last in Sacramento (2007-08) and his 49.2 eFG% is higher than all years of his career except for one. (For the sake of making my point, I’m disregarding the seven whole games he played in 2004-05, when his season was cut short by this.) He’s a league-average 3-point shooter and he’s fitting in with Mike D’Antoni’s shooting system perfectly: He catches the ball, and he shoots the ball. He’s assisted on only 6.8% of his teammates’ field goals this season. World Peace loves shooting the 3, and that’s all he has to do. He does it well (enough).

Most importantly, he’s easily their most valuable perimeter defender statistically and strategically. Dwight Howard is the only Laker worth more defensive Win Shares than MWP, and of the players who have appeared in at least half the team’s games, only Dwight (100) and Earl Clark (105) have a better defensive rating than MWP’s 106, but he always guards the other team’s best perimeter player, regardless of position. He’ll guard Dirk, he’ll guard Chris Paul, he’ll guard Durant and Westbrook in the same game. He’s also the only other Laker who’s played big minutes this season — aside from, you guessed it, Dwight — who influences the other team’s offensive rating in a positive way for the Lakers. With MWP on the floor, opposing teams score 105.7 points per 100 possessions, rebound the ball less often and shoot less efficiently. While he’s off the floor, though, opponents score more than 110 points per 100 possessions and see their eFG% drop by a whole point. (For reference, teams score 107.7 points when Kobe is on the floor, but just 104.8 points when he’s off the floor. Their eFG% is also an entire point higher.)

World Peace’s defensive value not only slows the other team down, but he also provides Kobe, who plays 38 minutes per game, the chance to rest enough on defense to remain valuable during the 4th quarter.

That sort of stuff doesn’t show up on the stat sheet. But minutes do.

And instead of MWP playing big minutes, the L.A. Times reports that Meeks will replace him in the starting lineup, leaving Jamison to come off the bench along with Clark, Steve Blake and Devin Ebanks. Yup. That’s actually real, and that’s really bad news for L.A. Meeks and Jamison, who will make up for most of the lost minutes, are both more efficient and arguably more valuable offensively than World Peace. But both of them are marginal-to-terrible defenders on any given night, and that’s even when they’re guarding the other team’s worst wing, as they typically do.

With the two of them playing heavier minutes, the onus is now once again on Kobe to guard everybody. At this point in his career, he’s simply incapable of shutting down elite players, as evidenced by his poor defensive rating. He’ll also be worth fewer defensive Win Shares this year than in any full season since the days when he was playing with Smush Parker.

Let’s not forget about the Lakers’ big showdown with the Mavericks next week, which could have a huge impact on the race for the West’s 8th seed. The Lakers have typically guarded Dirk with a combination of MWP and Pau Gasol, but with no World Peace, Clark will probably see a heavy dosage of the Big German when the two teams meet. Dirk hasn’t seen much success against the Lakers since Gasol joined the team, losing 12 times in the last 15 meetings (he’s averaged 23.3 points per game against L.A. since the start of the ’08-’09 season and has shot at or below 41% in those games seven times), but again, Gasol hasn’t guarded Dirk the entire time.

When Dirk is guarded by Gasol, Dirk brings him out far from the basket and leaves the lane open for slashers like Vince Carter and Darren Collison, for example. And with no MWP, who’s going to guard Carter and Collison? There’s only one Kobe. Do you see where this is going? And this is just the Mavericks. The Mavericks. They’re 9th place in the conference and the Lakers are going to have a hard time stopping them. What happens if L.A. squeezes into the playoffs? What will San Antonio or OKC do to them?

This entire season has been panic time for the Lakers, but it’s safe to say that Metta World Peace’s injury might be the most devastating and ill-timed blow yet, the cherry on top of the worst Lakers season we can remember, but a year that L.A. can’t wait to forget.

Marion’s return could not have come at a better time for the Mavericks. Although Dallas was 5-3 without him, the wins came against teams like Cleveland and Minnesota, while the Mavs suffered close defeats to San Antonio and Oklahoma City. Marion could have, and likely would have, made a huge difference in the games.

His temporary replacement in the starting lineup, Jae Crowder, hasn’t exactly made up for Marion’s production. The Mavs’ current starting lineup of Crowder, Mike James, OJ Mayo, Dirk and Chris Kaman has been outscored by more than 10 points per 100 possessions in the 73 minutes the unit has been used, and is being outrebounded by around 10 boards per 100 possessions in the same time frame. The problem is much more complex than simply substituting Marion in for Crowder (Dirk and Kaman, for example, do not have a positive plus/minus on average with any other combination of three players on the team), but the numbers indicate Marion is arguably Dallas’ most valuable player (something I’ve written about before), especially on the glass.

Keep in mind that Dallas is a horrible rebounding team, but Marion at least covers up some of the more glaring weaknesses. He averages 7.9 rebounds per game this season, his most since joining the Mavericks, and his 14.8 DRB%, which is due in part to Dirk’s poor health and Kaman’s poor rebounding in general, is still his highest since the 2007-08 season. (Kaman, for reference, is grabbing a lower percentage of rebounds this year than in any year since his rookie season, and he’s recording fewer rebounds this year than in any year since his second season. Ouch.)

Marion also defends the other team’s best perimeter player, sometimes even the best forward, which plugs up another hole. Although Marion’s 105 defensive rating is his lowest since 2010, it’s still a point better than Jae Crowder’s and 4 points better than OJ Mayo’s. And Marion has made up for his defensive decline by improving his offensive efficiency. His 52.1 eFG% this season is a full point above his career average, and he’s worth more Win Shares per 48 minutes this year than any year since 2008 (he bested this year’s mark in 2011 by .06 WS/48) surprisingly largely due to his offense.

In other words, he’s his team’s best perimeter defender and is enjoying an efficient, and valuable, offensive season.

Yeah, I think Dallas is happy to have him back.